✦ Thirty-Five Warehouses a YearNarrow moat

Costco Wholesale (COST) — the future bets

Thirty new catchments is about $9 billion of eventual revenue, and the binding constraint is not capital but where a municipality will let you build.

Costco's growth arithmetic is unusually legible. It opened 27 warehouses including three relocations in fiscal 2025, on capital expenditure of $5,498 million, and plans up to 35 including five relocations in fiscal 2026 on $6,000 to $6,500 million1.

Warehouses at period end861FY2023890FY2024914FY2025928Q3 FY2026Up to 35 openings planned for FY2026 on $6.0-6.5bn of capital expenditure.
About 3% unit growth. Thirty new catchments is roughly $9 billion of eventual revenue and two million memberships, and the binding constraint is planning permission rather than capital.

Net of relocations that is 24 additional catchments in 2025 and up to 30 in 2026, against a base of 914 — a little over 3% a year. Applied to average sales of roughly $295 million per warehouse2, thirty new boxes represent something like $9 billion of annual revenue at maturity, plus roughly two million new memberships at $65 or $130 each. Costco added 3.3 million paid memberships in the twelve months to the third quarter of fiscal 20263, so units and members grow at broadly similar rates.

The constraint is not capital. Costco holds $19,996 million of cash and short-term investments4 and spends only about half its annual operating cash flow on capital expenditure. The constraint is catchments, and the company's own risk factors are candid about how the supply has tightened: competition for suitable locations, local land-use regulation, community opposition, environmental rules, and jurisdictions that "have enacted or proposed laws and regulations that would prevent or restrict the operation or expansion plans of certain large retailers and warehouse clubs, including us"5. It adds a newer constraint — securing long-term utility contracts for new buildings amid growing electricity demand and regional water stress.

The offsetting fact is that unit growth is running faster outside North America, which Costco attributes to "the smaller base in those markets," and expects to continue6.

Count net new warehouses excluding relocations. Twenty-four in fiscal 2025, up to thirty planned for 2026. If that number falls back toward the high teens while capital expenditure keeps rising, the constraint has moved from ambition to availability.

Moat trajectory: Widening

Up to 35 openings planned against 27 delivered, on capital expenditure rising from $5.5 billion to $6.0-6.5 billion. The pipeline is getting bigger.

The number that tests this moat
Reported
Net new warehouses excluding relocations
24 in fiscal 2025; up to 30 planned for fiscal 2026

A little over 3% unit growth on a base of 914. If this falls back toward the high teens while capital expenditure keeps rising, the constraint has moved from ambition to availability.

Source: Costco Form 10-K, fiscal year ended August 31, 2025 ↗
References
  1. ReportedIt opened 27 warehouses including three relocations in fiscal 2025, on capital expenditure of $5,498 million, and plans up to 35 including five relocations in fiscal 2026 on $6,000 to $6,500 million.
    Costco Form 10-K, fiscal year ended August 31, 2025 - Item 7 MD&A (net sales $269,912M, membership fees $5,323M, gross margin 11.12%, SG&A 9.25%, comparable-sales composition, capital expenditure, dividends and repurchases) — FY2025 · publ. October 8, 2025 · source ↗
  2. Moat Explorer calcApplied to average sales of roughly $295 million per warehouse, thirty new boxes represent something like $9 billion of annual revenue at maturity, plus roughly two million new memberships at $65 or $130 each.
    Moat Explorer calculation: Costco FY2025 net sales of $269,912M over 134.7 million square feet and 914 warehouses; Sam's Club U.S. FY2026 net sales of $93,015M over 81 million square feet and 601 clubs — FY2025 vs Sam's Club FY2026 · publ. September 2026 · source ↗
  3. ReportedCostco added 3.3 million paid memberships in the twelve months to the third quarter of fiscal 2026, so units and members grow at broadly similar rates.
    Costco Form 10-Q, quarter ended May 10, 2026 - MD&A (comparable sales +10% and +7% excluding fuel and currency, ticket +7% against frequency +2%, membership fees $1,373M, renewal 92.2% and 89.7%, gross margin 11.04%) — Q3 FY2026 and the first 36 weeks · publ. June 3, 2026 · source ↗
  4. ReportedCostco holds $19,996 million of cash and short-term investments and spends only about half its annual operating cash flow on capital expenditure.
    Costco Form 10-Q, quarter ended May 10, 2026 - condensed financial statements and notes (total revenue $70,527M, operating income $2,815M, diluted EPS $4.93, balance sheet, segment table, 928 warehouses) — Q3 FY2026 and the first 36 weeks · publ. June 3, 2026 · source ↗
  5. ReportedThe constraint is catchments, and the company's own risk factors are candid about how the supply has tightened: competition for suitable locations, local land-use regulation, community opposition, environmental rules, and jurisdictions...
    Costco Form 10-K, fiscal year ended August 31, 2025 - Item 1A Risk Factors (U.S. and Canada 86% of net sales and 84% of operating income, California 26% of U.S. net sales, cannibalisation, tariffs, supplier and site-acquisition risk, 'high market expectations') — FY2025 · publ. October 8, 2025 · source ↗
  6. ReportedThe offsetting fact is that unit growth is running faster outside North America, which Costco attributes to "the smaller base in those markets," and expects to continue.
    Costco Form 10-K, fiscal year ended August 31, 2025 - Item 7 MD&A (net sales $269,912M, membership fees $5,323M, gross margin 11.12%, SG&A 9.25%, comparable-sales composition, capital expenditure, dividends and repurchases) — FY2025 · publ. October 8, 2025 · source ↗
Sources
Generated September 23, 2026